BJP’s Karnataka tally would dip to 2 in Lok Sabha on assembly vote
TNN | May 10, 2013, 12.54 AM IST
NEW DELHI: If voting patterns from the Karnataka assembly polls were to be replicated in the next Lok Sabha elections, the BJP would face an even gloomier scenario, winning just 2 of the state’s 28 seats. The Congress would win 22 and the JD(S) the remaining 4.
An analysis of votes by Lok Sabha seats shows that even if the votes gathered by the B S Yedyurappa-led KJP and the G Sriramulu-led BSRCP were added to the BJP’s tally, the combined entity would only get another 7 seats, taking the saffron party’s tally to 9, a huge drop from the 19 it won in 2009. Considering that Karnataka contributed the largest chunk of MPs to the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally in 2009, that is truly alarming news for the party.
Of course, voting patterns are never quite replicated in such a mechanical fashion, with voters often making a distinction between who they want in power in the state and who they prefer at the Centre, but such an analysis does help put the task before different parties in perspective.
Assuming the votes are replicated, the BJP would win just Belgaum and Chikkodi, the JD(S) would pick up Hassan, Mandya, Kolar and Tumkur and the Congress would win the rest. Apart from the two it would win, the BJP would come second in only 10 other seats. In short, it wouldn’t even be one of the two main contenders in a majority of the state’s Lok Sabha seats, finishing fourth in several.
The reason the JD(S) would do better than the BJP despite having exactly the same number of assembly seats and almost exactly the same vote share is because its votes are more concentrated in some pockets, largely in the southern parts of the state.
The KJP would be unable to win any seats, but would finish second in Bidar, Chamarajanagar, Davanagere and Haveri and a close third to the JD(S) in Shimoga, Yedyurappa’s home turf. Sriramulu’s BSRCP would be second to the Congress in Bellary.
Given this scenario, the pressure on BJP, KJP and BSRCP to merge or join hands is clear. But even if they were able to pool their votes, it would be enough to get past the post only in Bellary, Bidar, Dharwad, Gulbarga, Koppal, Shimoga and Tumkur. In that event, the Congress would be restricted to 16 seats, the combined saffron entity would get 9 and the JD(S) 3.