The Indian economy is headed for a major crisis by March 2011 due to the vast liquidity in the economy caused by corruption and compounded by ill-advised financial derivatives such as Participatory Notes (PNs).
As a consequence of the rise in money supply caused by black money generated by Corruption such as arising from 2G Spectrum allocation, CWG, and IPL, hoarders have played havoc with cereals, fruits, vegetables and processed foods, with prices sky rocketing. The core industries especially oil refining, steel, cement and coal have also undergone declines in output due to poor inadequate new investments.
With the Central Budget nearly bankrupt and depending solely on loans from public sector banks to balance the books, there will be further spurt in inflation and cut-back in real investment. Money stashed away abroad by Indian politicians and business houses, in illegal secret accounts, are expected to enter the stock market through the PNs to earn quick capital gains. Thus I predict the BSE will have a crash in March when the PNs will be withdrawn after short-selling, in the stock market for windfall profit.
The Prime Minister despite, being an economist is a politically impotent person. Already despite the mild rebuke of the Supreme Court on his inaction on 2G Spectrum orgy, his Ministers Kapil Sibal and Salman Khurshid are busy white-washing the crimes committed in the licence allocation by settling for minor fines and looking for loopholes to exonerate the Telecom companies.
The solution therefore lies not in Dr.Manmohan Singh resigning, but in a mass upsurge against the UPA and its patron of corruption Ms.Sonia Gandhi.
This however cannot be done by those opposition parties whose leadership is also tainted by the same scandals as the UPA.