This could happen unless there is an urge in ourselves to change!

1. Guys, you may feel startled but this is sure to happen. Read on!

2. The country was divided into Muslim Pakistan and Secular India in 1947. Hindus lost India by then.

3. In the years since partition Hindus were getting converted into secular, Muslim and Christians.

4. If Hindus do not wake up now, take up arms and fight for their own land they will perish in the next 20 years.

5. Modi Bhakts are our curse in causing Hindu disunity. Next election will be disaster for BJP.

6. By next election Hindus will find themselves in a political vaccuum.

7. Secularised Hindus will be the first step to conversion to Islam. See WB, Kerala.

8. There will be Akhandabharatam again in 20 years but all Muslim from Africa to Indonesia!

9. Every surviving temple we have got will be destroyed to dust by the frenzied Mohammedans.

10. By then Europe will be Ummah when India also falls into the hands of Jihadis.

11. Using India as the launching pad Islam will attack China using Chinese converts.

12. When they attack Israel, Israel will use nuclear weapons and 3rd world war will start.

13. Strangely US and Russia will join hands again in this war too!

14. Will the world survive then is anybody’s guess.

15. The timeframe may be a bit changing by few years but not long not very long and the substance is sure to happen.

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Dr Swamy’s Press Conference in Mumbai 21 Nov’15 #RaGaSaga

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The way out of the economic tailspin

As it stands at present, the Indian economy is headed for a crisis and a crash by early 2016. The government needs a Crisis Management Team of politicians and economists who are rooted in Indian ethos and not compliant to finance institutions like the IMF and the World Bank

When is an economy in a tailspin? It is when its rudder and Global Positioning System (GPS) malfunction. For an aircraft, it means hurtling down while spiralling to a crash. Such a crash happens very fast and without much notice. For example, East Asian nations such as Japan, South Korea and Philippines were growing very fast during the 1975-95 period, the growth rates of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeding 10 per cent per year. Japan was slated to overtake the U.S. by 2005.

Subramanian Swamy

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) termed it an “East Asian Miracle” in their publications and called it a model for other nations like India. However, in 1997, a sudden financial blowout knocked out these countries and all the talk of miracle evaporated. Japan is yet to recover from that blowout.

As it stands at present, the Indian economy is headed for a crisis and a crash. The likely date is by early 2016 in my estimation. Can a course correction today rectify and rescue the economy from a crash? Yes, of course, but only if there are short-term and long-term prescriptions to be followed. Does the Narendra Modi government have such contingency prescriptions ready? Not as of now.

Prescriptions for the crisis

What then are my prescriptions? First, the government must constitute a Crisis Management Team (CMT) of politicians and economists who understand the dynamics of Indian society and, more importantly, the general equilibrium calculus of an economy. At present, there is no such team in place. The economists in the government today are mostly ‘hand-me-downs’ from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, and are all of the IMF/World Bank vintage.

These are institutions which had miserably failed to either foresee or rectify the financial crises in Latin America in the 1970s; in East Asia in late 1990s; and even in the U.S. —where these two institutions are headquartered — in 2008. IMF/World Bank studies are of value only as tabular, statistical compilations and no more. Hence, the CMT has to consist of those who are rooted in the ethos of India and not compliant to international financial institutions.

Second, to know what crisis-managing reforms to initiate, we must first know which problem to focus on and prioritise for action. In my considered opinion, the following questions deserve immediate answers and consequent policy rectification:

a) Despite crude oil prices having crashed and the dollar value of the rupee having dropped in a steep devaluation, why have both exports and imports, especially the former in 23 of the 30 commodity groups, declined steadily over the last 14 months?

b) Why have household savings, which were the bulk of national domestic investments, dropped from a high of 34 per cent of GDP in 2005 to 28 per cent of GDP in 2015?

c) Why have the Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) of the public sector banks risen so sharply, in fact at a rate much higher than the rate of the new advances made by these banks?

d) When the economy needs about a $1 trillion investment in infrastructure to render ‘Make in India’ a reality, why is the actual investment in just 75 projects in Financial Year 2015-16 valued at Rs.42,749 crore, less than the amount invested in 2005-06, which was Rs.44,511 crore?

e) Why has the manufacturing sector, which provides the bulk of employment to the skilled and semi-skilled labour force, grown at an abysmally low rates of between 2 per cent and 5 per cent?

f) Why, when India’s agricultural products are among the cheapest in the world despite a low yield per hectare, are we not able to double the production and export the products abroad?

To address these priority problems, it is essential to implement a menu of measures to uplift the household sentiments by abolishing the personal income tax; by lowering the cost of capital, by reducing the prime lending interest rates of banks to below 10 per cent; by shifting to a fixed exchange rate of Rs.50 per dollar for the financial year 2016; and lowering the exchange rate further for subsequent years; by abolishing Participatory Notes while invoking the U.N. Resolution of 2005 to bring back black money of about $1 trillion; and by printing rupee notes to fully finance basic infrastructure projects.

Incidentally, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor, Raghuram Rajan, has single-handedly brought a huge slowdown to the Indian manufacturing sector and exports. As a doctor, he has believed that the best way to bring down the temperature of a patient (i.e., inflation) is to kill him (investment starvation).

By raising and keeping interest rates high and hence making the cost of capital prohibitive, he has killed the essential manufacturing investments in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and in export ventures. The Prime Minister is best advised to replace him with someone like Dr. R Vaidyanathan who is presently Professor of Finance in the Indian Institute of Management-Bangalore (IIM-B).

The CMT should also initiate steps for transforming agriculture into a globalised sector by providing adequate infrastructure to export food and milk to Europe and the U.S.

In the long run, we need to tap the advantages we have in our demographic dividend. Through innovation, we must tap our vast Thorium deposits for clean electricity generation and thus end power shortage; set up desalination plants along our long coastline to provide adequate water for coastal States; overcome technological issues and build a water grid by linking major rivers, from Ganga to Cauvery, through canals; and develop new alternative technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells to provide an environmentally friendly substitute to petroleum products.

Alternative ideological thrust

As I have written before, including in The Hindu, the government also needs to give an alternative ideological thrust to economic policy rather than trying to improve up the past failed UPA economic policies. In particular:

a) The individual has to be persuaded by the state through incentives and not through coercion.

b) India can make rapid economic progress to become a developed country only through a globally competitive economy which requires assured access to the markets and technological innovations of the United States and some of its allies such as Israel and Japan. This has concomitant political obligations which must be accepted as essential.

c) Such rapid progress would require a national security strategy for a peaceful environment.

d) The Indian state has to be minimalist in regulatory interventions in social and economic matters; maximalist in providing the quality of life needs; and optimal in the maintenance of law and order.

e) The key goal of the state has to be to empower the individual through a modern education system that gives importance to both material and spiritual progress.

f) An ethos developed on the concepts of trusteeship of wealth, philanthropy and voluntary group action encouraged by religious sanction for the better distribution of income and for minimising economic contradictions and deprivation.

g) At present, generally, the Indian has loyalty to the family but is apathetic to the community where he lives. There are character flaws that have come from two centuries of deprivation and are incompatible with a people forming a great nation. These flaws can be rectified by developing a strong and coherent concept of national identity whose defining characteristics can be culled from a correct perception of Indian history.

India has always come out of crises renewed and on a higher growth path. The food crisis of 1965-67 led to Green Revolution self sufficiency in food, and the foreign exchange crisis of 1990-91 led to economic reforms, enabling the country to move away from Soviet-style statism to market system and high growth rates.

Thus, the present imminent economic crash should galvanise the way we do business and make us rise to new heights through innovation and achieve high growth rates with financial stability.

(Subramanian Swamy is a former Union Cabinet Minister for Commerce and professor of economics.)

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Subramanian Swamy: the fall guy

The BJP government has taken one and all by surprise when it recommended prosecuting BJP leader Subramanian Swamy for promoting religious intolerance between Hindus and Muslims in a book he has written.

In a strong-worded affidavit, the Home Ministry claimed that the book ‘Terrorism in India’ which was published in 2006 violated the rules of hate speech.

“The book promotes feelings of hatred and enmity between Hindus and Muslim, hence it should be taken into account. Therefore, the petitioner has violated sections of the Indian Penal Code”, the Ministry of Home Affairs said.

While a non-bailable warrant was issued against Swamy, the Supreme Court gave a ‘stay order’ on it.

While Subramaniam Swamy is part of the BJP, on occasions, he has also questioned the party over the non-fulfillment of promises such as bringing back black money, etc.

Known to speak his mind, Swamy spares neither friend nor foe and is somewhat of a ‘loose cannon’. Still, it is highly surprising that the BJP chose to prosecute such a stalwart of Hindutva.

In order to make up for the allegations of intolerance, the BJP seems to have initiated this move and made Swamy the ‘fall guy’.

What lends credence to this argument is the fact that when the book ‘Terrorism in India’ was released in 2006, it was the UPA government at the Center and they had absolutely no problem with it.

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Shekhar Gupta speaks on Anticipating India – The Best of National Interest

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Shekar Gupta and Arun Shourie

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Arun Shourie speaks on coward and corrupt media

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