The Islamic State of Sweden

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Nirav Modi looted Rs 11,400 crores but Rahul Gandhi got a commission of Rs 11,600 crores? Here’s what Rahul Gandhi revealed which has put Congress into deep trouble!

Since last two weeks, the media are reporting that the fraudulent transactions that took place in Punjab National Bank was worth Rs 11,400 crores. This fraud that was well executed by Nirav Modi and his uncle Choksi with the alleged help of Congress leaders during 2011 has got a new twist. The amount looted by these diamond mafia goons are not Rs 11,400 crores but almost double than that amount.

The dramatic twist has been emerged after Rahul Gandhi’s tweet on 21st February. He has tweeted that Nirav Modi has looted Rs 22,000 crore. Have a look at his tweet!

Modi Ji, last month you ignored my suggestions for your Mann Ki Baat monologue.

Why ask for ideas when in your heart you know what every Indian wants to hear you speak about?

1. Nirav Modi’s 22,000 Cr. Loot & Scoot

2. The 58,000 Cr. RAFALE scam.

I look forward to your sermon.

Mr Rahul Gandhi, who said you that Nirav Modi has looted not Rs 11,400 crores but Rs 22,000 crores?

While there was a discussion of how Nirav Modi and Choksi looted the Punjab National Bank, the Congress President- who has no expertise in the financial sector- has come up with his own figure. While the investigations say that the loot is Rs 11,400, how can Rahul Gandhi say that the loot amount is Rs 22,000?

Is it so that as the Congress party has alleged links with the loot, Rahul Gandhi knows the exact figure of the “loot” that has taken place?

The initial investigations has revealed that the “loot” started in the Congress led UPA era. While one after another proof is emerging, the Congress was in a denial mode, but the tweet made by Rahul Gandhi has put the Congress in a deep trouble.

If Congress wasn’t a part of the scam, then how could Rahul Gandhi say that the loot had mounted upto Rs 22,000 crores? Yesterday, February 20th, even the Income Tax Department issued a notice to Anita Singhvi, the wife of senior Congress leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi, asking her to explain about certain jewellery purchases, amounting to Rs 60 million, from a showroom owned by beleaguered diamantaire Nirav Modi.

Income Tax department suspected that about Rs 15 million was paid by cheque for the purchase of the jewellery, while about Rs 48 million was paid in cash by Anita Singhvi.

At this crucial time, Rahul Gandhi has added over Rs 10,000 crore more to the loot. Now, Rahul Gandhi should answer how he got that figure? As the investigation agencies doesn’t report directly to Rahul Gandhi, he can’t say he got this secret information from the central agencies.

Has Rahul Gandhi got a commission of over Rs 10,000 crore from the loot? Such suspicions has been erupted after Rahul Gandhi’s tweet. Here are few other evidences that raise fingers at the Congress party!

Dinesh Dubey, a government nominee director of Allahabad Bank, had opposed sanction of Rs 1500 + Rs 50 Cr to Gitanjali Jewellers owned by Nirav Modi’s uncle Mehul Choksi- during a meeting of the Board of Directors of the bank at Kolkata on September 14, 2013. But Congress threatened and forced him to resign.
Nirav Modi and Rahul Gandhi had met on September 13, 2013, and the funds sanctioned a day later to Nirav Modi. So, does it mean that Rahul Gandhi received a favor from Nirav Modi and in return sanctioned funds when his party was in power?

Hansika Raj

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Beyond PNB fraud: Over 9,300 wilful defaulters owe banks over Rs 1 lakh crore

Updated: Feb 21, 2018 | 07:01 IST | ET Now Digital
Beyond PNB fraud: Over 9,300 wilful defaulters owe banks over Rs 1 lakh crore

Indian Banks have lost over Rs 1 lakh crore due to bank frauds, willful default cases   | Photo Credit: BCCL

New Delhi: The recent Punjab National Bank (PNB) fraud case, predicted to cost banks over Rs 20,000 crore, has revived tensions in the Indian banking sector. At a time when the government is determined on recapitalising public sector banks, it has again been held back by a string of loan frauds and rising wilful defaulters. Data suggests that there are roughly 9,339 wilful defaulters, who have the capacity to repay their debts but have refused to do so in the past. In total, the liabilities of these defaulters stand at Rs 1,11,738 crore, reports The Indian Express. 

In the report, it has been mentioned that at least 7,564 borrowers have defaulted paying back Rs 93,357 crore to state-owned banks as of September 2017. All data on this front is available on the Credit Information Bureau of India Ltd (CIBIL), and it indicates that in less than five years, the debt of wilful defaulters has risen 340 percent from Rs 25,410 crore in 2013 to Rs 1,11,738 crore in 2018.

RBI sets deadline for SWIFT changes, forms panel to look into rising bank frauds

While the Reserve Bank of India, which claimed to have cautioned banks about a PNB-like fraud in August 2016, is yet to release the full list of defaulters. The RBI has also set up a panel to investigate the issues related to rising bank frauds. However, the apex bank had earlier in 2017 informed the Supreme Court that it is not in favour of disclosing lost of loan defaulters who owe more than Rs 500 crore PSBs.

The norms for categorising an individual or unit as wilful defaulter have already been defined by the RBI, where it clearly states that an individual/company is declared as a wilful defaulter if repayment of loans has not been initiated, despite having sufficient means to do so. Apart from that, it also includes names of those who have siphoned off funds or not utilised the loan for the purpose it was borrowed.

It may be noted that PNB, despite bagging three vigilance awards from the CVC, has been struck multiple times by cases of loan fraud. Apart from the Rs 11,400 crore fraud, PNB has wilful defaults to the tune of Rs 12,574 crore, involving more than 1,000 borrowers as of December 2017, reveals latest data available on CIBIL. Winsome Diamond, Nafed, and Apple Industries have been listed as major defaulters by PNB.

However, it is the largest lender State Bank of India that has the highest amount of wilful defaults amounting to Rs 27,716 crore, involving 1,665 borrowers. With a debt of Rs 1,286 crore, Kingfisher Airlines tops SBI’s list of wilful defaulters, followed by Calyx Chemicals, JB Diamond, Spanco, Zenith Birla, Shreem Corp, and several others.

PNB fraud: CBI questions 10 bank officials, 18 Nirav Modi employees

There are several other banks which have a high number of defaulters, taking the total amount of debt to the figure of Rs 1,11,738 crore. It may be noted that RBI has given green signal to credit rating agencies like CIBIL to disclose the identity of wilful defaults and those involved in scams.

Another interesting information that has come to light is that banks have written off Rs 3,60,000 crore in the last 10 years. Rating firm Crisil said the total gross NPAs in the banking system might rise to Rs 9.5 lakh crore by the end of this fiscal. The acute rise of NPAs that banks are trying to limit, skyrocketed in 2015, increasing significantly from Rs 3.2 crore recorded at the time. This development took place after the RBI asked banks to recognise NPAs.

PNB fraud: Supervisory agencies must ensure stray cases don’t become the norm, says FM Arun Jaitley

The government is under pressure to reduce the liabilities of public sector banks, as a large number of NPAs have dampened the country’s growth prospects. The recent recapitalisation plan, under which massive funds were allocated to banks, has also taken a big hit due to the fraud conducted by diamond jewellery designer Nirav Modi, his business partner Mehul Choksi and other family members.

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Nearly 12,000 wilful defaulters have siphoned off more than Rs 1,60,256 crore from both public sector and private sector banks, co-operative banks, foreign banks operating in India and other financial institutions. This latest figure (as on December 31, 2017) of the Credit Information Bureau (India) Limited (CIBIL) does not include defaulters of major banks like State Bank of India.

As per the CIBIL’s list, the amount of total wilful default with above Rs 25 lakh but below Rs 1 crore stands at around Rs 69,279 crore while that of wilful defaulters having outstanding of above Rs 1 crore is more than Rs 90,976 crore.

What is shocking is that only six PSU Banks have submitted data to CIBIL about their defaulters above Rs 1 crore as on December 31, 2017.  They are Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank, Bank of Baroda, Central Bank of India, Dena Bank and Union Bank. In the list of Rs 1 crore and above defaulters, more than Rs 46,306 crore dues stand out against these six PSUs.

Wilful defaulters are the unit or borrowers, who intentionally do not make repayments of loans to its/their lenders despite having the capacity to make payments, divert the loan to use it for other purposes than what the loan was taken for and disposed or sold off properties given as a security during the loan.

According to top banking officials, these figures might go very high if the defaulters’ data from SBI and its recently merged seven associate banks are included. SBI’s total wilful default is estimated to be around Rs 28,000 crore.

The total amount of wilful default against private sector banks above Rs 1 crore stands at more than Rs 25,090 crore. However, the CIBIL list does not show the quantum of default against ICICI Bank in the above Rs 1 core category.

Among  the six PSU banks which have declared the list of defaulters having dues above Rs 1 core,  Andhra Bank has a liability of Rs 9,903 crore, followed by Bank of Baroda (Rs 9,6660 crore),  Central Bank of Indian (Rs 8,523 crore) and  Allahabad Bank (Rs 8,084 crore).

Among the private banks in the dues above Rs 1 crore defaulting category, Axis Bank has outstanding liability of Rs 9,907 crore followed by HDFC Bank with dues of Rs 3,509 crore.

Among the foreign banks operating in Indian, Standard Chartered Bank has the highest dues of Rs 5,725 crore followed by Citi Bank with dues of Rs 1,167 crore.

The scam-hit Punjab National Bank (PNB) has declared that their liability in the above Rs 25 lakh and up to Rs 1-crore category is more than Rs 12,574 crore. In this category, the PNB is having the highest value of defaulting. However, the PNB has not submitted its default dues in above Rs 1 crore category to CIBIL. The PNB is followed by Bank of India with Rs 6,104 crore and Bank of Baroda with Rs 5,342 crore in the public sector banks category.

Out of more than Rs 69,000 crore dues of small time defaulters in the range of Rs 25 lakh to Rs 1 crore,   majors shares goes to PSU banks with more than Rs 53,444 crore. The private sector banks have only defaulting value of more than Rs 12,814 crore in this category.

In this category, Kotak Mahindra Bank tops the list with more than Rs 7,134 crore. ICIC Bank is having default of more than Rs 1,040 crore and Axis Bank Rs 1,866 crore.

The CIBIL is maintaining three categories of defaulters and NPA related cases. The first is wilful defaulters ranging between Rs 25 lakh and Rs 1 crore, the second is the list of wilful defaulters and suit filed in cases above Rs 1 crore. These two categories are open to public scrutiny. The third category is on the non-suit filed category, which is not open to public category.  The RBI had told the Supreme Court that in the interest of business, the list of defaulters having above Rs 500 crore dues cannot be made public.

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Congress PRESSES Obama for URGENT ANSWERS over Russian Dossier

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Will Assam be Muslim majority in the next 40 years?

Assam is perched on a precipice with extremely serious security implications for the country. Low Hindu fertility rate, stubbornly high Muslim fertility rate, and illegal infiltration, often encouraged by the propertied classes that wanted cheap labour, are likely to contribute to turning a state that was barely 14% Muslim in 1901 to a Muslim majority state in 2061.

This article has been co-authored by Shanmukh, Saswati Sarkar, Dikgaj and Aparna

Assam has seen rapid change in religious demography, since the beginning of the twentieth century. From 14% minorities in 1901, the state has seen a rapid rise in the number of minorities and a corresponding fall in the fraction of Hindus in recent years. The influx of Bangladeshis, once a source of labour for the landlords (of various Hindu ethnicities in Assam, eg, Asomiya, Bengali, Marwaris, and even the British), has led to persecution and flight of Hindu residents (of all ethnicities) from their homes, agitations against the Indian state and serious strife in the region, as communities have turned against each other, leading to fragmentation of both the polity and the society. Militias of various groups have roamed the land, leading to attacks against each other too.

Consequently, we seek to predict and analyse the evolution of religious demographics of Assam in the next fifty years using established statistical tools.

In the first part of the article, we present our conclusions of the various techniques, along with tables of the projected growths and the dates by which the various districts of Assam will turn Hindu minority, along with maps illustrating the same. In the latter part of the article, we analyse Assam as a whole and predict the demographics of the entire state. In the last part, we present our analysis on what the consequences of legalising the illegal immigrants via visas, as has been suggested by influential members of various political persuasions including the right wing and BJP support base.

In all our calculations, we have considered Hindus to comprise of Hindus, Jains, Buddhists and Animists. All the different categories other than Hindus are <1% in all the districts we have included in our analysis. Consequently, we have included them in the Hindu category. However, Christians have been modelled separately wherever they are in significant numbers. Further, in no place have Christians been included in either Muslim or Hindu category, even where they have not been modeled as in those where they constitute <1% as in Kamrup, Nagaon and Cachar.

Historically, Assam consisted of eight districts, namely, Goalpara, Kamrup, Nagaon, Darrang, Lakhimpur, Sibsagar, Cachar Hills and Cachar. Of the eight districts, Lakhimpur is comprised of the districts of Tinsukhia, Dibrugarh, Dhemaji and Lakhimpur, while Sibsagar comprises the districts of Sibsagar, Jorhat and Golaghat. Both Sibsagar and Lakhimpur have >85% Hindus and have shown little change since 1951, we have therefore not investigated changes in religious demography in these. The other six have been showing a rapid fall of Hindus and have been investigated. For reasons of historical consistency, we have grouped these 6 districts as they historically existed (as large parts of census data in the past exist only for the districts as they existed then).

Thus, in all our models: Goalpara comprises of Goalpara, Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon and Chirang; Kamrup consists of Barpeta, Baksa, Kamrup, Kamrup Metropolitan, and Nalbari; Darrang comprises of Darrang, Udalguri, and Sonitpur; Nagaon comprises of Nagaon and Morigaon; Cachar (also known as Barak valley) comprises of Cachar, Hailakandi and Karimganj districts; and Cachar Hills comprise of Dima Hasao and Karbi Anglong districts.

In this article, we have aggregated the various districts in each historical district together to determine the future religious demographics.

Take home message 1:

District Actual Percentages Projected Percentages (in 2061)
1951 2011 Constant Growth Polynomial Logistic
Goalpara 54.24 38.30 17.61 22.26 24.16
Kamrup 70.42 61.41 46.27 44.55 50.03
Nagaon 59.23 44.89 26.54 30.12 35.06
Darrang 78.98 64.56 43.92 50.68 51.68
Cachar Hills 93.22 78.93 63.72 66.34 75.93
Cachar 61.19 50.96 37.60 42.23 43.70

Table 1: The table shows the actual percentages of the Hindus in 1951 and 2011 and the likely percentages of the Hindus in 2061 by the three methods used to predict the future demographics

It becomes clear that by 2061, Hindus will fall below 50% of the total population in five of the above six areas modelled according to both constant growth model and polynomial models. Currently, 22 million of the total 31 million, i.e., about 75% of the total population of Assam, lives in these 5 districts. Next, Goalpara, and Nagaon (Nagaon is the most heavily populated of the current districts of Assam) will have Hindus at 25% or so in 2061, a huge collapse from being a Hindu majority region in 1951. These regions are already a Hindu minority, while they used to be Hindu majority only two decades back. And Kamrup, housing nearly a fifth of the total population of Assam will also be a Hindu minority in 2061. Last, but not the least, Cachar, the Bengali speaking region of Assam, will also have become a Hindu minority. Already, it is tottering on the brink of becoming Muslim. Thus, in short, Hindu demography in Assam is collapsing across all major Hindu groups, including ethnic Assamese and ethnic Bengalis.

In contrast, the Muslim population has risen from 43% in 1951 in Goalpara to 56% in 2011, and is projected to rise to more than 70% in 2061 (in all models). In Kamrup, it increased from 29% in 1951 to 39% in 2011 and is predicted to rise to ~50% in 2061 in the various models. Similarly, in Darrang, it increased from 17% in 1951 to 29% in 2011 and is predicted to rise to more than 45% in 2061. In Nagaon, the Muslim percentage increased from 40% in 1951 to 55% in 2011 and is predicted to rise to more than 70% in 2061, and in Cachar, it increased from 38% in 1951 to 49% in 2011 and is predicted to rise to more than 60% in 2061. Similarly, the Christian population in Darrang has risen from 4% in 1951 to 7% in 2011 and is projected to rise to 8% in 2061; in Goalpara from 3% in 1951 to 5.5% in 2011 and is projected to rise to 8% in 2061; and in Cachar Hills from 7% in 1951 to 19% in 2011 and is projected to rise to 33% in 2061.

We now present on a map of Assam the year by which Hindus in different districts will fall below the 50% mark as per the three statistical growth models, as also the year by which Muslims will become majority in the same. We have coloured in deep green the districts that are already Hindu minority, in red those districts that may be Hindu minority by 2061 (we have indicated, in the table below the map, the years in which the districts shown in red will turn Hindu Minority and Muslim majority respectively, according to various models), and in yellow those that will remain Hindu majority in the next fifty years in all the models..

Map of Assam

In the case of the sixth district, Cachar Hills, experience has shown that once a Christian percentage reaches a certain point in a tribal district, it tends to shoot up (this will be shown clearly in our models in the northeast states). Similarly, it may well turn out that this district too may become non-Hindu majority, while mathematical models do not indicate that just yet. Further, Cachar Hills looks large geographically, but it is very sparsely populated.

Consequently, of the eight districts of Assam, five will be definitely non-Hindu majority or nearly at par. The remaining two will have Hindus above the 80% mark, assuming no migration to change the demographics of the last two regions.

In terms of the current districts, Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Bongaigaon, Nagaon, Morigaon, Darrang, Karimganj and Hailakandi are Hindu minority, while Nalbari, Kokrajhar, Kamrup and Cachar are also Hindu minority in the 0-4 age group, already. A total of 9 existing districts are already Hindu minority with at least five more set to join the list of Hindu minority districts in the coming years.

Take home message 2:

A point of particular concern is the negative growth of Hindus in many areas that are heavily Muslim dominated. In the table below, we have presented the data of tehsils, where the Hindu growth has been negative in the 2001-2011 decade. As may be observed, all the tehsils are Muslim dominated.

Tehsil District Hindu growth 01-11 Muslim growth 01-11 Muslim % in 2011
Chapar Dhubri -12.29% 22.99% 68.9%
Kalgaicha Barpeta -17.3% 32.71% 99.1%
Bagbhar Barpeta -2.39% 17.57% 96.4%

Table 2: Listed above are a few tehsils that have shown negative growth rate for Hindus in 2001-2011 decade. We have also shown the corresponding Muslim percentages in the districts.

The negative growth of the Hindus in these tehsils, when their neighbouring tehsils show a healthy Hindu growth imply that large scale emigration of the Hindus is ongoing. In several tehsils like Mankachar, Jaleswar, South Salmara, Laharighat, Dalgaon, etc. (especially the rural areas), Hindus have been practically wiped out, making growth (positive or negative) a matter of irrelevance. The situation is approaching similar levels on the other side, especially in the Badarpur and Hailakandi tehsils. Consequently, the actual growth rates do not matter in many tehsils, where the Hindu percentage is below 10%.

Take home message 3:

The religious demography of Assam as a whole will evolve as follows:

Districts Actual Percentages Projected Percentages
1951 2011 Constant Growth Polynomial Logistic
Assam 73.32 61.99 44.95 43.88 48.03

Table 3: The actual percentages of Hindus in 1951 and 2011 and the projected percentages of Hindus in 2061 using the three techniques used to predict future demographics

It may be observed that all the three models show a clear Hindu minority situation in 2061. Indeed, both the polynomial and constant growth models show a Hindu minority well before 2051. We believe that these models are more realistic than the logistic model for Assam. Further, the Hindu population is projected by the polynomial model to actually begin shrinking from 2051-2061 decade. Assam’s Hindu population will fall from 21.8 million to 21.2 million and will shrink further. Assam’s Hindu population also has a very low fertility rate. Assam’s population grew only by about 11.6% in 2001-2011, whereas the Muslim population grew by 26.2%, with Muslims in many border districts growing by as high as 31%.

The point to note is that Hindu demographics of Assam has also benefited vastly by the ingress of many Hindu Bangladeshis, Nepalis, and Biharis. However, despite this immigration, Hindu demographics of the area is consistently falling, as it has been overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of Muslims immigrating from Bangladesh. Had the Hindu immigrants not arrived, Assam would have been in a worse state demographically, from the Hindu perspective.

Take home message 4:

The principal cause for the collapse of Hindu demography in Assam has been Hindu mercantile greed over the last hundred years, amplified lately by middle-class avarice for access to cheap household help. For example, Eastern Goalpara, Kamrup, and Nagaon were 4-6% Muslim in 1901. Today, all three have Muslim populations ranging from 35 to 50%. Barpeta district (part of the undivided Kamrup) had 0.1% Muslims in 1901 and the Muslim population has risen to 65% today. From 1911, the influx of cheap Muslim labour from Bogra and Mymensingh in (today’s) Bangladesh to grow rice and tea on land seized from the Rabha, Bodo and Tiwa tribals by Indian and British landowners, transformed the demographics of this region in less than 30 years.

The Bangladeshi immigrants were, initially, mostly landless peasants and were settled on otherwise `unproductive land’ to benefit landowners. However, since then, they have seized vast amounts of land belonging to tribal communities, who have since been marginalised in Assam. Since then, they have continued to appropriate every kind of land – including Sattra lands – for agriculture. The illegals also provide a source of cheap labour for the tea industry (in some areas) and construction industry in other areas. Logging also employs these Bangladeshi infiltrators.

The concern about the influx of illegal infiltrators from Bangladesh needs to be viewed in the context that the growth of Hindus in many Muslim dominated districts is turning out to be negative. It is important to note that this phenomenon is being reported only in the regions of high Muslim presence. Thus, the Hindus are fleeing, or rather being compelled to flee, such regions. Hindu flight from Muslim dominated regions of Assam is a reality and is reflected in Table 2. This trend is likely to accelerate. Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon and Chirang districts saw a growth rate of 4.1% for Hindus (average growth rate of Hindus in Assam is 11.4%), while Muslims grew by more than 20% in the same districts. All the districts have a high Muslim population and have shown a very rapid rise in the number of Muslims in recent years.

The flight of the Hindus is unsurprising considering the assaults to which the Hindus have been subjected to in recent years by the illegal Bangladeshi immigrants. In Barpeta, Hindu temples have been desecrated [7]. In Darrang and Dalgaon, Bodos have been expelled from their homes. [8]. In Dalgaon, Durga Puja idols of the Bodos were attacked by the illegal Bangladeshis. [9]. In Dhubri, anti-India slogans were raised by the Bangladeshis, thus threatening the territorial integrity of the country [10]. Given these rampant attacks on the Hindus, the Hindus are leaving the region in droves.

It has been conservatively estimated [3] that the total number of illegals in Assam is between 1.5 and 2.5 million, or nearly one in every four Muslim inhabitants of Assam. It is likely that the actual number is much higher. These illegals have swamped the districts of lower Assam and Cachar, and have changed the demographics of the districts. The census numbers include the illegals and has thereby contributed in no small measure to our prediction of alteration of the religious demography of Assam.

There is large scale alarm about alteration of religious demography among the Hindu residents of Assam. The newly elected BJP government has in fact won by promising that it would solve the problem of illegal immigrants. It is of concern that there has been a persistent suggestion in influential sections of the support base of BJP that the problem is best solved by giving the illegal immigrant visas and legalising them [1]. Further, a call for free immigration from Bangladesh is being made. Economic development has been the pretext presented for both [1], [5], [6]. In fact, the call for naturalisaton of the illegals, who have `lived long’ is also being made in [5] and [6]. The legalisation of the illegal immigrants will lead to their eventual naturalisation as citizens. Even if the illegal immigrants are denied citizenship, their children will become citizens. Thus, not only will legalisation of illegals, not redress the demographic collapse of Hindus in Assam, it will exacerbate the same.

It is worth noting that Assam, sharing a border with three countries (Bhutan, Bangladesh and China) is key to holding the entire north east and, in the event of a war, all the roads leading to the northeast are currently dominated by areas filled to the brim with illegals. Secondly, it is the rural areas that are being lost to illegals. Urban Dhubri is 57% Hindu, while rural Dhubri is 15% Hindu. With the rural areas overrun by illegals, the big cities are becoming islands in a sea of illegals and are becoming cut off from each other. Already, Gauripur and Dhubri towns are cut off from the rest of India by the huge numbers of illegals, who dominate the countryside. In 20-30 years, the same fate will befall Gauhati, Darrang, and Nagaon too. Rural Kamrup, Darrang, and Nagaon also show a similar trend. This can result in a situation fraught with serious security implications for India. During the 1962 war between India and China, the illegal (then) East Pakistanis tried to welcome the Chinese invaders with Pakistani and green flags p. 107, [2]. There is no reason to believe that the new set of illegal immigrants are more loyal than their predecessors were in 1962. Similarly, a constant refrain of the Bangladeshis has been, `শিলহট্ট নিলাম গণভোটে কাছাড় নেবো লাঠির জোরে’ (We have taken Sylhet by the ballot, we will take Cachar by kicking you out).

Economic development is welcome, but not at the expense of national security or collapse of Hindu demography. If Hindus are forced to flee regions of heavy Muslim dominance, as they are currently, clearly the economic development that the legalisation of illegal immigrants might bring in, will not in any way further the interests of local Hindu commoners, regardless of the impact on the GDP. The suggestion to trade legalisation of illegal immigrants for greater investment opportunities in Bangladesh [5], [6] is a horrifying one, since it will inevitably come at the cost of the indigenous communities of Assam and the North East, as they are forced to flee the region due to the pressure by the illegal immigrants. It is imperative, therefore, that infiltrators be expelled, not legalized. On this count, a distinction must be made based on religion, as religion determines the principal cause of immigration from neighboring Bangladesh. Hindus from Bangladesh are seeking refuge in different parts of India including Assam due to religious persecution in Bangladesh. Muslims are not subjected to any religious persecution, their illegal migration into India is therefore for economic or other reasons. So, illegal Muslim migrants need to be expelled as infiltrators, while Hindu migrants need to be offered the status of refugees and subsequently naturalized – otherwise Assam is lost for good.

Statistical projections of religious demography – models and results

The statistical projections have been made for all the communities using the methods mentioned; namely, constant growth models, polynomial curve fitting, and logistic curve fitting models. In all the graphs, the 1981 census is blank as no census was held in Assam in 1981, due to political turmoil and strife.

The constant growth model takes the average growth of the previous two decades and extrapolates them for the coming decades. Given that Hindu, and Muslim (but not Christian, as Christian growth rates often depend on conversions) growth rates are slowing down, the population (but NOT population percentages) of Hindus and Muslims obtained using this technique can be viewed as the upper limit of the populations that are likely to be present in 2061. The logistic curve assumes that all populations tend towards stability (neither increase, nor decrease) over time, and tries to ‘flatten’ the growth rates and thus stabilise populations in the long run. This can be viewed as the ‘stable’ population that is likely to be attained, assuming that stability does occur. The polynomial tries to realistically model the changes that have occurred in the past and project them into the future. This is the only model that can capture population fall in the future (due to low fertility rates) populations and tries to be the most realistic model, given the current data.


Constant Growth:

In the constant growth model, we model the percentages of the various groups, assuming the average population growth of the various communities between 1991 and 2011 to hold in the future. The following percentages are inferred using this model.

As may be seen in this model, five of the six areas considered, turn Hindu minority by 2061, with the Hindu population falling below the 25% mark in two districts. Goalpara (which became Hindu minority in 1991) and Nagaon (which became Hindu minority in 2001) are two of the most heavily populated districts in Assam. Kamrup (Hindu minority in 2051), Darrang (Hindu minority in 2051) and Cachar (Hindu minority in 2021) are the other districts, which will become a Hindu minority in this model, before 2061. Further, all these districts will become Muslim majority by 2061, too, despite a significant Christian population in both Goalpara and Darrang.


Polynomial Model:

In this model, we try to fit third degree curves to the data points and try to predict the future populations. In the case of Goalpara and Darrang, owing to the rapid rise of Muslim population after minor changes in direction of growth in earlier decades, the third degree curve gives a large error. Consequently, we have chosen second degree curves to model these populations and predict future religious demographics.

In this model, too, five of the six districts become a Hindu minority (even Darrang has a Hindu population of 48% in 2061; it is just not Muslim majority due to the presence of a 7.5% Christian population in the district). The Hindu population of Goalpara falls below the 25% mark in this model too. Hindu population of Cachar falls below the 50% mark in 2021, Kamrup in 2051, and Darrang in 2061.



Logistic Model:

In this model, we try to fit logistic curves to the data points and predict future populations and percentages from them. The curves are shown below.

In the logistic model, the Hindu population is below the 50% mark in three of the six districts, with the Hindus and Muslims at par in Kamrup (50.06% Hindus and the rest Muslims). Only in Darrang, do the Hindus show slightly greater than 50% population (Hindus are 51.6% in Darrang in this model). Hindus are set to fall below the 50% mark in 2031 in Cachar according to this model.


The state as a whole:

We also project the population of entire Assam using the same three models. From the above figures, it can be seen that by 2061 Hindus will fall below the 50% mark in all three models, with the best case shown in the logistic being a 48.03% Hindu figure in 2061. Muslims are at par in the logistic model with 48.31% of the population share. The share of Hindus is 44.95% in the constant growth model and 43.89% in the polynomial model in 2061. In both these cases (51.8% in polynomial and 50.9% in the constant growth model), Muslims form the majority by 2061. Hindus become the minority in 2051 in both the constant growth and polynomial models.



In conclusion, we can say that Assam is perched on a precipice with extremely serious security implications for the country. It is not too much to say that the future territorial integrity of India is at stake and how the Indian state expels the illegals will determine the course she takes as a nation. Low Hindu fertility rate, stubbornly high Muslim fertility rate, and illegal infiltration, often encouraged by the propertied classes that wanted cheap labour, are likely to contribute to turning a state that was barely 14% Muslim in 1901 to a Muslim majority state in 2061.


[1] – Jagannathan, “Capitalism’s crisis will end when they free immigration”, 19/08/2011

[2] – Braja Bihari Kumara, “Illegal Immigration from Bangladesh”.

[3] – AP Joshi, MD Srinivas, and JK Bajaj, “Religious Demographics of India”

[4] – JK Bajaj, “Demographic decline of the locals, infiltration and Congress vote politics create turmoil in Assam” Organiser, 27/08/2012,,-infiltration-and-Congress-vote-politics-create-turmoil-in-Assam–b-.aspx?NB=&lang=4&m1=&m2=&p1=&p2=&p3=&p4=&PageType=N

[5] – Jagannathan, `”Assam Violence shows we need to open up legal migration”,

[6] – Jagannathan, `”Why PM Modi should offer Sheikh Hasina a win-win deal on Illegal Immigrants”,

[7] Temple desecrated in Barpeta

[8] On the offensive

[9] BJP condemns infiltrators attacking Bodos in Assam

[10] Anti India Slogans raised in Dhubri,
All the relevant demographic data has been taken from [3] and the corresponding census of India books. Some of the data for the table showing the negative growth of Hindus has been taken from [4]

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