Last year the third front led by the Samajwadi party had a still birth when Jayalalitha walked out. Later she seemed to have skewed it into an alliance minus the SP as the SP went about rescuing Manmohan Govt. from imminent defeat. Yet the third front seem to have got resurrected by the same Jayalalitha and it is breathing but barely. As the election got announced with the Congress trying to hijack the election commission with its plant Chawla as the CEC and Sonia trying to strengthen her iron grip over the nation with the Sikhandi P.M. leading it, there are attempts to show that party its proud place of oblivion by its allies by their starting to jettison it from the alliance. If the indications are real then there will not be an alliance between the Congress and the NCP in Maharashtra. Bal Thakre might announce his clarion call for Maratha power and join with Sharad Pawar. The BJP might sulk at its helplessness.
In U.P. the breaking of the opportunistic alliance between the SP and the Congress is almost certain. Here also with the desertion of the Brahmins first to the BSP and later the Lodhs under Kalyan Singh migrating to the SP, the isolation of the BJP is complete. The SP will be the bulwark of the OBC and a section of the Muslims and the BSP will be the rampart of the Dalits and the Brahmins with some BC and Muslims on its side. The rest of the population will be shared between the BJP and the Congress. In these two states alone that counts for almost a quater of the Lok Sabha the BJP and the Congress may not get a dozen seats each.
In Bihar Laloo may not be as lucky as he was last time. If the alliance between the BJP and the JD(U) is firmed up, we can see the routing of the Congress and the RJD in this populous state. In West Bengal and Kerala the Communists are bound to lose some ground which might force it to choose between the third front it has promoted and the Congress post election. In Orissa the shocker for the BJP was the breaking of its alliance with the BJD. Here the Congress might gain a bit but don’t know by how much. In anycase it may not be enough to make a difference nationally.
In Andhra there has been a realignment that has left both the Congress and the BJP without friends. In Tamilndu the AIADMK would get resurrected and would do to DMK and the Congress what they did to Jayalalitha last time.
In West Bengal and Kerala the communists might not be ask lucky as they were last time. But that is no solace to the BJP. Depending on its strength the Communists might betray the very third front it founded in favour of a Congress supported front post election.
So the election could throw up a result that would make the BJP the single largest party with not enough allies to claim the majority. Not sure if the Congress Party of Sonia Maino would be the second largest party in parliament or if that title would go to the BSP of Mayavathi. This gives an opportunity for the non-Congress, non-BJP to stake claim for forming the Govt. At this moment this seems to be a very sure possibility yet what is not clear is who would be the dominant supporter of that Govt. – Congress or the BJP. For this we have to wait for the election results.
History is repeating itself!